Immigration Barristers' Blog

Recent research by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) into the impact of immigration on the UK labour market has revealed that increased immigration was not associated with increases in claims for Jobseekers Allowance.

Existing research on the labour market impact of immigration to the UK has generally found little or no impact on average, with at most a generally modest impact on the less skilled. This paper adds to that evidence by using a more comprehensive and reliable data source, and updates the analysis to include the recent recession.

The paper presents initial results on the impact of migration inflows on the claimant count rate using previously unused data on National Insurance number (NINo) registrations of foreign nationals, which researchers regard as superior in a number of respects to data on migrants from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

In contrast to the LFS, which is a sample survey of the entire population at a point in time, NINo registrations to overseas nationals are complete administrative data on new migrant inflows, largely for employment purposes, giving reliable estimates at much smaller geographies than is possible with the LFS.

The research found no association between migrant inflows and claimant unemployment. In addition, researchers tested for whether the impact of migration on claimant unemployment varies according to the state of the economic cycle, and found no evidence of a greater negative impact during periods of low growth or the recent recession.

Controls to restrict how Bulgarian and Romanian nationals access the UK labour market are to be extended until the end of 2013. This means Romanian and Bulgarian (EU2) nationals seeking to work in the UK will continue to require permission from the UK Border Agency before they can work in the UK.

A report from the independent Migration Advisory Committee looked at the impact on the domestic labour market if the transitional controls were removed. It found that lifting the current restrictions could cause more EU2 nationals to come to the UK to work, particularly in lower skilled occupations where there is greater risk of displacement of resident workers and a negative impact on wages.

Permission to work will normally be given only where the worker has a specific job offer and the work is in skilled employment for which the employer has been unable to find a suitably qualified resident worker. There are also quota-based arrangements for lower skilled jobs in the agricultural and food processing sectors which will stay at the same level for 2012 and 2013.

The extension of the restrictions does not affect the position of those who have already been authorised to take employment in the UK.

Specialist jobs that are no longer required in the UK will be removed from a government-approved list that helps to ensure the UK only accepts migrant workers that the country needs.

The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has advised that the Shortage Occupation List be revised to restrict migrants from outside the European Economic Area to a smaller proportion of occupations within the UK labour market.